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Objective To study the epidemic characteristics of hand foot mouth disease (HFMD) and the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of HFMD in Beijing from 2010 to 2019, and to provide scientific evidence for the warning, prediction, prevention and control of HFMD. Methods Descriptive statistical analysis was conducted to analyze the epidemic characteristics of HFMD in Beijing from 2010 to 2019 using R4.0.2 software, and the relationship between meteorological factors such as daily average temperature, daily average relative humidity, daily average precipitation, daily average air pressure, and daily average wind speed and HFMD incidence from 2015 to 2019 was analyzed by using distribution lag nonlinear model. Results In 2010-2019, a total of 324 864 HFMD cases were reported in Beijing, with an average incidence rate of 155.10/100,000. May to July was the annual peak of HFMD. The average daily temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were positively correlated with the incidence of HFMD (Rs=0.66, 0.45 and 0.24, P=0.0000, 0.0000 and 0.0000, respectively). The average daily wind speed and pressure were negatively correlated with the incidence of HFMD (Rs=-0.14 and -0.3, P=2.22×10-9 and 0.0000, respectively). The RR was the highest when the air temperature was 25℃ and at the lag of 10 day, which was 1.41 (95%CI:1.12-1.77). Humid weather conditions were the risk factors of HFMD, and the influence time was relatively long. The RR was the highest when the relative humidity was 84.5% and the lag was 15 days, which was 1.51 (95%CI:1.34-1.70). When daily average wind speed was 3m/s, and the lag was 14 days, the RR was the highest, which was 1.22 (95%CI:0.86-1.73). The RR was the highest when the daily average pressure was 842.5 hPa and the lag was 5 day, which was 1.20 (95%CI:0.66-2.07). When the daily average precipitation was 166.5 mm and the lag was 7 days, the RR was the highest, which was 4.37 (95%CI:1.61-11.84). When the above meteorological conditions were met, the risk of HFMD was the highest. Conclusion Meteorological factors such as daily average temperature, daily average relative humidity, daily average precipitation, daily average pressure and daily average wind speed are closely related to the incidence of HFMD, which is nonlinear and has certain lag. It can be used to predict the risk and epidemic intensity of HFMD, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control, early warning, and prediction of infectious diseases.
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Objective@#To study the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Xiamen, Fujian province, and provide scientific evidence for the early warning, prediction, prevention and control of HFMD.@*Methods@#Correlation analysis and distribution lag nonlinear models (DLNM) analysis of meteorological factors such as daily average pressure, daily average relative humidity, daily average temperature and sunshine hours and the incidence of HFMD in Xiamen during 2013 to 2017 were conducted by using R3.4.3 software.@*Results@#A total of 36 464 cases of HFMD were reported in Xiamen during 2013-2017, and the incidence showed an upward trend (F=40.359, P=0.008). The daily average relative humidity, daily average temperature and sunshine hours were positively correlated with the incidence of HFMD (r>0), and the daily average site pressure was negatively correlated with the incidence of HFMD (r<0). In the case of a lag of 0-5 days, when the daily average pressure of the station was higher than 1 005 hPa, the risk of HFMD gradually increased with the increase of air pressure, and the risk of disease decreased with the increase of lag days. The risk was highest when air pressure was 1 017 hPa and at the lag of 0 day (RR=1.14, 95%CI: 0.67-1.94). When the relative humidity was higher than 95%, the risk of HFMD gradually increased with the increase of relative humidity, and the lag time ranged from 0 day to 10 days, which was most obvious on the 4th and 5th days. The risk was highest when relative humidity was 100% and at the lag of 5 days (RR=1.32, 95%CI: 1.02-1.71). When the air temperature was >28 ℃ and <8 ℃, the risk of HFMD existed, but the lag time was inconsistent. The relative risk was highest during 15-20 days at low air temperature, and the lag time at high air temperature was mainly during 5-15 days. The risk was highest when air temperature was 28 ℃ and at the lag of 4 days (RR=1.10, 95%CI: 0.94-1.29). The sunshine time was >12 h and lag of 0-3 days was a risk factor for the incidence of HFMD. The risk was highest when sunshine time was 13 h and the lag of 0 day (RR=1.20, 95%CI: 1.05-1.36).@*Conclusion@#Meteorological factors such as daily average pressure, daily average relative humidity, daily average temperature and sunshine hours were associated with the incidence of HFMD with certain lag in Xiamen. So, it is suggested to use these data in the early warning system of HFMD.
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Objective To explore the spatio-temporal epidemic trends and related driving effects of meteorological factors on brucellosis in Datong city,Shanxi province,from 2005 to 2015.Methods We collected the surveillance data on brucellosis and related meteorological data in Datong city from 2005 to 2015,to describe the epidemic characteristics of the disease.Quasi-Poisson distribution lag non-liner model (DLNM) was built to explore the driving effect of monthly meteorological data on the disease.Results From 2005 to 2015,Datong city reported a total of 17 311 cases of brucellosis including one death,with the annual average incidence as 47.43 per 100 000 persons.A rising trend was seen during the study period.The monthly incidence of Brucellosis presented an obvious curve with a major peak from March to June,accounted for 48.40％ of the total cases.The high incidence areas in the city gradually expanded from the northeast and southeast to the western areas.Results fiom the DLNM studies suggested that seasonality of brucellosis in Datong was significantly affected by metrological factors such as evaporation,rainfall and temperature.The peak of delayed effect appeared the highest when the monthly cumulative evaporation capacity was 140-260 mm and the monthly cumulative rainfall was 20-60 mm with lag less than 1 month or the monthly temperature was-13 ℃ with lag of 4-5 months.Conclusions The incidence of human brucellosis in Datong city increased significantly from 2005 to 2015.Meteorological factors such as evaporation,rainfall,temperature all showed significant driving effects on the disease.
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Objective To analyze the distribution characteristics of bacillary dysentery in Beijing during 2004-2015 and evaluate the influence of meteorological factors on the temporal and spatial distribution of bacillary dysentery.Methods The incidence data of bacterial dysentery and meteorological data in Beijing from 2004 to 2015 were collected.Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted to study the distribution characteristics of bacterial dysentery.Linear correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were carried out to investigate the relationship between the incidence of bacillary dysentery and average precipitation,average air temperature,sunshine hours,average wind speed,average air pressure,gale and rain days.Results A total of 280 704 cases of bacterial dysentery,including 36 deaths,were reported from 2004 to 2015 in Beijing,the average annual incidence was 130.15/100 000.The annual incidence peak was mainly between May and October,the cases occurred during this period accounted for 80.75％ of the total,and the incidence was highest in age group 0 year.The population distribution showed that most cases were children outside child care settings and students,and the sex ratio of the cases was 1.22 ∶ 1.The reported incidence of bacillary dysentery was positively associated with average precipitation,average air temperature and rain days with the correlation coefficients of 0.931,0.878 and 0.888,but it was negatively associated with the average pressure,the correlation coefficient was-0.820.Multiple linear regression equation for fitting analysis of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors was Y=3.792 + 0.162X1.Conclusion The reported incidence of bacillary dysentery in Beijing was much higher than national level.The annual incidence peak was during July to August,and the average precipitation was an important meteorological factor influencing the incidence of bacillary dysentery.
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Objective To explore the effects of meteorological factors on population densities of the host and the prevalence of animal plague in the natural plague foci of Spermophilus alaschanicus.Methods The surveillance data of seroprevalence rate in natural plague foci of Spermophilus alaschanicus of Gansu Province in current year,one previous year (relative to current year as a reference),as well as two and three previous years’ meteorological data such as average annual rainfall,temperature,relative humidity were collected from 1962 to 2014.SAS 9.3 software was used for correlation and regression analysis of the influencing meteorological factors on the density of Spermophilus alaschanicus and prevalence of animal plague;generalized additive model (GAM) was used for quantitative study of meteorological factors on density of Spermophilus alaschanicus;logistic regression analysis was used to study the effect of meteorological factors on prevalence of Spermophilus alaschanicus plague.Results Serum positive rate of Spermophilus alaschanicus was positively correlated with average annual rainfall of current and previous one year,and with relative humidity of current year (r =0.279,0.341,0.654,P ＜ 0.05);serum positive rate was negatively correlated with average annual temperature of current and preceding first,second and third years (r =-0.360,-0.339,-0.273,-0.323,P ＜ 0.05).The average annual rainfall of preceding second and third years was significantly associated with the densities of Spermophilus alaschanicus by GAM parameter estimation (t =2.88,2.42,P ＜ 0.05).The average annual rainfall of preceding second and third years was significantly associated with the densities of Spermophilus alaschanicus by GAM nonparameter estimation (x2=31.580,13.428,P ＜ 0.05),but the effect was nonlinear.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that average annual rainfall of preceding first year [odds ratio (OR) =2.475,95％ confidence interval (C/):1.175-5.213] was risk factor for the prevalence of the animal plague in the natural plague foci of Spermophilus alaschanicus.Conclusions Rainfall is risk factor for the prevalence of the animal plague in the natural plague foci of Spermophilus alaschanicus.There is a lag effect of rainfall on the numbers of hosts and the prevalence of Spermophilus alaschanicue plague.When the rainfall in the region (not continuously) reaches a certain amount,it will provide favorable conditions for the spread of Yersinia pestis.
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Hand foot and mouth disease(HFMD)is a common infectious disease in children with strong infectivity and wide sphere of influence. Now,no effective medicine aimed at treating HFMD has been produced in the world. All we can do is to reduce its harmful effects and prevention is particularly important. Its pathogenesis is complex and is related to many factors,such as floating population,living environment, self-immunity,health habit and prevention awareness,meteorological factors are one of them. Meteorological factors are one of the important factors that affect the outbreak of infectious diseases,and the meteorological factors play an important role in the occurrence and prevalence of infectious diseases in the population. This review was to analyze the relationship between the incidence of HFMD and meteorological factors and other factors ,and to study the qualitative and quantitative relationship between the prevalence of HFMD and all fac-tors,and to provide evidence for the prevention measures.
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Objective To investigate the relationship between fleas density of Spermophilus alaschanicue and host density as well as meteorological factors.Methods The densities of fleas of Spermophilus alaschanicue and meteorological temperature,precipitation,relative humidity data in the same period from 1977 to 2014 in plague natural foci of Spermophilus alaschanicue of Gansu Province were collected.In order to further establish the multiple linear regression and the stepwise regression analysis model,SAS 9.3 software was used to explore the linear correlation analysis between fleas index number,density of Spermophilus alaschanicue and meteorological factors.Results The average body flea index positively correlated with the density of Spermophilus alaschanicue (r =0.34,P ＜ 0.05),in addition,hole fleas index was in negative correlation with the average temperature of the current and preceding first,second and third years (r =-0.44,-0.39,-0.45,-0.54,P ＜ 0.01).However,hole fleas index positively correlated with the average rainfall of preceding first year (r =0.38,P ＜ 0.05).More specifically,the monthly body flea index was negatively correlated with the average rainfall and the average temperature of current,preceding first,second,and third months,and the average relative humidity of current month (r =-0.23,-0.34,-0.43,-0.29,-0.25,-0.33,-0.36,-0.38,-0.26,P ＜ 0.01).After multiple linear regression analysis,the following equations were obtained:body fleas index =3.983 1 + 0.695 1 × Sperrnophilus density-0.004 9 × average annual rainfall;hole fleas index =10.780 4 + 0.009 1 × average annual rainfall-0.216 2 × annual average relative humidity.Conclusions The relationship between fleas density of Spermophilus alaschanicue and the environment is complex,they have mutual connection as well as mutual restriction.Except Spermophilus density affects the number of fleas,the two most important meteorological factors which affect the flea body index are temperature and rainfall.In addition,the relationship between meteorological factors and flea body index shows somewhat lagging behind for two to three months.
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Objective To explore the spatio-temporal epidemic trends and related driving effects of meteorological factors on brucellosis in Datong city,Shanxi province,from 2005 to 2015.Methods We collected the surveillance data on brucellosis and related meteorological data in Datong city from 2005 to 2015,to describe the epidemic characteristics of the disease.Quasi-Poisson distribution lag non-liner model (DLNM) was built to explore the driving effect of monthly meteorological data on the disease.Results From 2005 to 2015,Datong city reported a total of 17 311 cases of brucellosis including one death,with the annual average incidence as 47.43 per 100 000 persons.A rising trend was seen during the study period.The monthly incidence of Brucellosis presented an obvious curve with a major peak from March to June,accounted for 48.40％ of the total cases.The high incidence areas in the city gradually expanded from the northeast and southeast to the western areas.Results fiom the DLNM studies suggested that seasonality of brucellosis in Datong was significantly affected by metrological factors such as evaporation,rainfall and temperature.The peak of delayed effect appeared the highest when the monthly cumulative evaporation capacity was 140-260 mm and the monthly cumulative rainfall was 20-60 mm with lag less than 1 month or the monthly temperature was-13 ℃ with lag of 4-5 months.Conclusions The incidence of human brucellosis in Datong city increased significantly from 2005 to 2015.Meteorological factors such as evaporation,rainfall,temperature all showed significant driving effects on the disease.
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Objective To analyze the distribution characteristics of bacillary dysentery in Beijing during 2004-2015 and evaluate the influence of meteorological factors on the temporal and spatial distribution of bacillary dysentery.Methods The incidence data of bacterial dysentery and meteorological data in Beijing from 2004 to 2015 were collected.Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted to study the distribution characteristics of bacterial dysentery.Linear correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were carried out to investigate the relationship between the incidence of bacillary dysentery and average precipitation,average air temperature,sunshine hours,average wind speed,average air pressure,gale and rain days.Results A total of 280 704 cases of bacterial dysentery,including 36 deaths,were reported from 2004 to 2015 in Beijing,the average annual incidence was 130.15/100 000.The annual incidence peak was mainly between May and October,the cases occurred during this period accounted for 80.75％ of the total,and the incidence was highest in age group 0 year.The population distribution showed that most cases were children outside child care settings and students,and the sex ratio of the cases was 1.22 ∶ 1.The reported incidence of bacillary dysentery was positively associated with average precipitation,average air temperature and rain days with the correlation coefficients of 0.931,0.878 and 0.888,but it was negatively associated with the average pressure,the correlation coefficient was-0.820.Multiple linear regression equation for fitting analysis of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors was Y=3.792 + 0.162X1.Conclusion The reported incidence of bacillary dysentery in Beijing was much higher than national level.The annual incidence peak was during July to August,and the average precipitation was an important meteorological factor influencing the incidence of bacillary dysentery.
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This paper aims to find out the impacts of meteorological factors on malaria transmission by exploring the relationship between monthly local malaria cases and meteorological factors in Tengchong county,so as to develop malaria control strategy.Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence data and meteorological data including monthly mean temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,rainfall,relative humidity,and minimum humidity in Tengchong County,Yunnan from 2005 to 2010 were provided by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and China Meteorological Administration.The correlation between malaria incidence and meteorological factors was analyzed using Pearson correlation analysis.The generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to investigate the relationship between monthly local malaria cases and meteorological factors.Results showed that there was a weak positive correlation between minimum temperature,mean relative humidity as well as minimum relative humidity and local malaria incidences.While a complex nonlinear relationship between the vectorial capacity,relative humidity and the incidence of malaria was detected.Malaria transmission increases when the vectorial capacity was greater than 10 (VCAP＞10) or the average relative humidity was between 55％ and 70％.The malaria transmission declines when relative humidity above 70％.The relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of local malaria is well explained by GAM,and there is a complex nonlinear relationship between vectorial capacity,relative humidity and malaria incidence.
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Objective To explore the relation between rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and the meteorological factors.Methods All RA cases in the group were followed for 12 months,patients were follow-up for every two weeks.In each followed-up,all RA cases were evaluated by the disease activity score-28 (DAS28) and the improved Jamieson questionnaire,and the correlation of the DAS28 and the average values of meteorolo-gical factors (temperature,humidity,atmospheric pressure,relative humidity,wind speed) by Pearson correlation coefficient.The moderate-severe activity cases were evaluated by chi-square test of different seasons.Results One hundred and eighty-eight cases completed the observation,One hundred and sixty-four cases were in moderate disease activities (x2=9.42,P=0.022).Sixty-eight cases were distributed in winter,which was significantly higher than other three seasons.The average temperature and wind speed was negatively related to the DAS28 (r=-0.743,P＜0.01; r=-0.576,P=0.003).Conclusion The activity of RA has the characteristics of seasonal changes,and is easily being aggravated in winter.Many factors may influence RA,including temperature and wind speed.Creating an appropriate micro-climate environment is beneficial for RA patients to reduce the disease activity.
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Objective To understand the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease (HFMD) and the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in China.Methods Bayesian hierarchical model[Besag,York,and Mollie' (BYM) model] was used to fit the data.The fitting effects of uncorrelated heterogeneity (UH) model,correlated heterogeneity (CH) model and spatial and temporal interaction model were compared and the best model was selected to analyze the meteorological factors influencing the incidence of HFMD.Results The UH +CH model with spatial and temporal interaction had best fitting effect (DIC=35 507.2).Rainfall(RR=1.051 7,95％ CI:1.050 4-1.052 5),average temperature (RR=1.089 6,95％ CI:1.078 1-1.106 9),average relative humidity (RR=l.089 0,95％CI:1.082 1-1.091 2),average air pressure (RR=l.076 4,95％ CI:1.074 8-1.077 9) and hours of sunshine (RR=1.0851,95％ CI:1.0798-1.0875) were the meteorological factors influencing the incidence of HFMD.Conclusion The incidence of HFMD had spatial and temporal clustering characteristics.The meteorological factors were closely related with the incidence of HFMD.
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PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of meteorological factors on the onset of idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss (ISSHL). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Meteorological data from 2005 to 2011 were obtained from the web-based "Monthly Weather Reports of the Meteorological Administration" database. Patients with ISSHL who visited our hospital during this same period and presented the precise day on which hearing loss developed were included in this retrospective study. Twelve meteorological factors were analyzed between the days when ISSHL onset was observed as well as the days when ISSHL did not occur. The weather conditions occurring 1-7 days before ISSHL onset were also analyzed to assess any possible delayed effects of meteorological factors on the onset of ISSHL. RESULTS: During the study period, 607 patients were included for the study. Although mean and maximal wind velocities were higher for the days when ISSHL occurred than the days without ISSHL onset, after adjusting the value for multiple comparisons, we cannot find any significant relationship between any of meteorological factors and the onset of ISSHL. However, in analysis of time lag effect of the weather conditions, we found that there was still a significant difference in maximum wind speed on 5 days before ISSHL onset even after applying Bonferroni correction. CONCLUSION: The result of this study suggests that stronger wind speed may be related to the occurrence of ISSHL.
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Adult , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Hearing Loss, Sensorineural/diagnosis , Hearing Loss, Sudden/diagnosis , Meteorological Concepts , Retrospective Studies , WindABSTRACT
Objectives To study the impacts of air temperature and the other weather factors on the daily mortality of the residents in cities for targeting the preventive measures to decrease the excess mortality induced by climate change.Methods The daily mortality and weather surveillance data were provided by Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention and China Meteorological Bureau respectively.The correlation between the weather factors(temperature,humidity,air pressure,rainfall,wind speed) and the daily mortality of residents in a county of Chongqing were analyzed by using the Poisson GAM of time series(increased by 1℃ for air temperate,decreased by 1% for relative humidity and one unit for air pollution index) adjusting for the secular trend,seasonal trend,short-term fluctuation and day of week.Results The excess mortality increased to 12% as the temperature increased 1℃.The excess mortality increased to 4% and 0.6% respectively as the relative humidity decreased 1% and the air pollution index increased one unit.Conclusion High temperature,with humidity and air pollution,will cause increased excess mortality of residents in this county
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In recent years,high-temperature heat wave caused an increase in the number of deaths than other climate disasters,the study of the effects of heat waves on the health of urban residents health becomes a subject of concern.Sustained high-temperature heat waves will inevitably cause harm to human health,to understand the characteristics of heat waves is conducive to the prediction of high temperature heat waves and to the establishment of reasonable response measures.This paper mainly introduces the present status of heat wave occur,the impact of heat wave on human health,the influencing factors for excess mortality during heat waves as well as the research methods for heat wave which are commonly used to predict.
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Objective By discussing the relationship between allergic diseases caused by pollen,pollen density and meteorological factors,making out the warning for the allergic diseases caused by pollen,in order to provide a public service.Methods The data of meteorology from 2001 to 2005 of Tianjin,the pollen monitoring of the Weather Iron Tower Station day by day and the allergic patients whose skin tests were positive in Tianjin Municipal Chest Hospital and Tianjin Municipal Police Hospital were taken to statistical analysis on the rule of seasonal allergic diseases,the relationship between allergic diseases and pollen density and meteorological factors(such as vapor pressure and wind speed),and the prediction equations were obtained for allergic diseases caused by pollen.Results There was obviously positive correlation between the incidence rate of pollinosis(y),weighted pollen density(x11) and vapor pressure(x22) within twenty-days before the onset.The multiple correlation coefficient was 0.805 and the prediction equation was y =2.385+ 0.079 3x11 +3.507x22.Conclusion There is a close correlation between the incidence rate of pollinosis and pollen density.The allergic diseases caused by pollen are also affected by the change of air temperature,varieties of pollen and humidity.
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Objective To explore the effect of the meteorologic factors on air pollution in the summer in Xian, China. Methods The data of SO2?NO2 and PM10 concentrations in the air and the related meteorologic factors [maximum temperature(tmax), minimum temperature(tmin), average air pressure(P) and relative humidity(H)) from April 1st to June 30th in 2005 were collected. The correlation between the air pollutant level and related meteorologic factors was analyzed by the elements time diagram and multiple regression models with SPSS 11.0 software. Results A significant correlations between the meteorological elements and air pollutants was seen, the regression models for air pollutants were as follows, lnSO2=-3.352+0.019 tmax-0.026 tmin, lnNO2=-3.448-0.003H+0.012 tmax-0.015 tmin and lnPM10=-2.197+0.011 tmax-0.021 tmin. Conclusion The meteorologic factors have some effects on the air pollution levels and then impact human health in some degree.